Bernie Didn't Lose Because of the DNC

Debbie Wasserman Schultz is an idiot, a hack, and the DNC had their thumb on the scale for the Clinton campaign, but it had little to do with Clinton winning.  Clinton won because she had millions more votes than Sanders.  Her supporters showed up to vote in greater numbers and she had longstanding connections in minority communities.  That's it.

Were there incidents of voter disenfranchisement?  Yes.  Did they materially influence the outcome of the primary?  No.  In fact, the incidents of disenfranchisement particularly in Maricopa County in New Mexico, probably hurt Clinton more than they hurt Sanders.  Did party rules hurt Sanders? Maybe, but they were in place well before this primary and an equally good argument could be made that the long primary process helped Sanders by allowing his name to get out there.

Clinton received 16,847,075 votes while Sanders received 13,168,214.  This is in contrast to the 2008 Democratic primary where Obama received 17,584,692 votes and Clinton received 17,857,501.  The turnout numbers for 2008 don't even include the large states of Florida and Michigan that were excluded from the final count because they moved their primaries in violation of party rules.  The bottom line:  Worry about showing up to vote, not massive conspiracies between the incompetent DNC and the clueless Clinton campaign.

Sanders campaign accomplished a lot despite not winning the nomination:

• The TPP will likely be killed well before it has the chance to reach Clinton's desk.
•  The default position in the Democratic Party is now a public option that is the best way toward universal health care. 
• Clinton has now endorsed free tuition for families making under $125,000 a year. 
• The number of super-delegates has been cut by two-thirds in the primary process.  

These are all good and tangible things accomplished by the Sanders campaign and they will be completely abandoned if Donald Trump is our next president.

The next President will get to name 1-4 Supreme Court justices and greatly influence how the constitution is interpreted for the next 30 years. The choices are Clinton or Trump. If you're a progressive voter and you cast a third party vote or don't show up, that's half a vote for Trump.  Voting is a collective action, not a consumer choice.

Podcast 4/21/2016: Moderate Headaches

In this episode, Vinny and I discuss the never-ending saga of marijuana legalization in Vermont, our frenemy Saudi Arabia, the criminals behind the impeachment of Brazil's Dilma Rousseff, the bizarre but prevalent notion of political moderates, New York's primary, fraud in the Northeast Kingdom, the NFL concussion settlement, and more.

http://s51.podbean.com/pb/34b76ec08239f06a7215f684f8fe5cd9/57229f6d/data2/fs181/958366/uploads/Podcast_4-21-2016Full.mp3

NSFW

Notes:

• Speculation on the still classified 28 pages of the 9/11 report.
• A little on the bill that would allow American citizens to sue Saudi Arabia for terrorism.  In my view (and I'm certainly not a lawyer) this would set a bad precedent and potentially open us up to all sorts of legal action.  Could citizens of Vietnam, Cambodia, Nicaragua, Iran, El Salvador, and/or Iraq sue us?  Would everyone in the world just start suing each other?  Declassify the 28 pages, stop selling them weapons, and stop helping them in Yemen, but allowing civil action might be a bad idea.
• Foreign workers accounted for roughly 30% of Saudi Arabia's population in 2014.
• A look at what is behind the push to impeach Brazil's Presiden Dilma Rousseff.
• The massive fraud in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom.  Looks like the underlying investment return was supposed to come from the sales of property and rents on condos.  In retrospect, it seems like people should have been much more skeptical.
• The extensive alleged criminal past of California Representative and former chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Darrell Issa.  It involves grand theft auto, arson, fraud, gun play, and drunk driving.
• Issa's net worth may be closer to $220 million rather than the $500 million figure I cited.

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Podcast 4/9/2018: Panama

On this episode, Vinny and I discuss the Panama Papers and we ponder creating a series of profanely-named shell corporations to hide various activities of The Vomiting Brain.  We also talk about Bernie Sanders' interview with the Daily News, what a huge dick Rick Scott is, and then Charlie Rangel stops by briefly.

Sorry, this one was late.  We had some sound quality issues, which necessitated editing, which created nonsequiturs (more than usual), which necessitated more editing.  Plus, I'm lazy.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-7trkf-5e788b/download

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com
Notes:

• Daily News interview with Bernie Sanders
• MetLife's "too big to fail" designation being overturned.
• Vox on the Panama Papers
• Planet Money sets up a shell company.
• According to Planet Money, Deleware is unique in that they don't require any identification to set up a company.  Fortunately, setting up bank accounts is harder.
• Florida Governor Rick Scott presiding over widespread Medicare fraud as CEO at Columbia/HCA.  He pled the 5th 75 times.
• Rick Scott being called out on being the asshole that he is...

• Rick Scott proving that he is the asshole that we all think he is...

• Seriously dude, you're the governor; don't you have some governing to do?
• Sir Mark Thatcher, first of his name of House Thatcher, was among those named (thus far) in the Panama Papers for hiding his money offshore.  Thatcher was also a co-conspirator with a mercenary named Simon Mann in a failed coup attempt of Equatorial Guinea.  Mann is British not South African as I mistakenly said in the podcast.

Podcast 4/2/2016: The "Bernie or Bust" Movement and Minimum Wage

In this episode,  Vinny and I throw some cold water on the "Bernie or Bust" movement.  We then move on to discuss the political and economic justifications for a raise in the minimum wage.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-cavrx-5e1988/download

Notes:

• Zephyr Teachout is running for the House in New York's 19th Congressional district.  If you're serious about progressive policies then consider donating to her campaign or voting for her if you reside in the 19th.  She's from Vermont, for what it's worth.
• Russ Feingold is a progressive candidate for US Senate (and former US Senator) in Wisconsin. Again, the above applies.
• Tim Canova is challenging incompetent DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 23rd congressional district.
• The minimum wage went from $0.40 in 1945 to $0.75 in 1950 to $1 in 1956.  
• From 1948 to 1960 unemployment was as follows (BLS): 

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• 1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0
• 1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6
• 1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
• 1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1
• 1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7
• 1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5
• 1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0
• 1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2
• 1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2
• 1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2
• 1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2
• 1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3
• 1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6
 
• There were other things going on beside the minimum wage increase during this time like the baby-boom, soldiers returning from WWII, soldiers going to Korea, the G.I. bill, and the normal cyclical trends of the economy, but based on the above data I don't think it's necessarily reasonable to expect massive unemployment because of a minimum wage hike.
• During the same period of time as noted above inflation ranged from 10.2% in January of 1948 to -2.9% in October of 1949.  Again, there was a lot going on during this period of time. Since the 1920's the economy had been pretty volatile, so it takes a very selective reading of the data to pin it on a minimum wage increase (Inflation Calculator).  EDIT I just realized I cited the two extremes that occurred before either of the minimum wage increases.  Inflation from 1945-1960 was as follows:


• 1945 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
• 1946 2.2 1.7 2.8 3.4 3.4 3.3 9.4 11.6 12.7 14.9 17.7 18.1 8.3
• 1947 18.1 18.8 19.7 19.0 18.4 17.6 12.1 11.4 12.7 10.6 8.5 8.8 14.4
• 1948 10.2 9.3 6.8 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 8.9 6.5 6.1 4.8 3.0 8.1
• 1949 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -2.9 -2.9 -2.4 -2.9 -1.7 -2.1 -1.2
• 1950 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 3.8 3.8 5.9 1.3
• 1951 8.1 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.8 7.5 6.6 7.0 6.5 6.9 6.0 7.9
• 1952 4.3 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 1.9
• 1953 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8
• 1954 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.7
• 1955 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4
• 1956 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 3.0 1.5
• 1957 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.3
• 1958 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.8
• 1959 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 0.7
• 1960 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7


• Other empirical studies (namely Card and Krueger), have shown little to no increase in unemployment even when wage levels differ in neighboring states.  In the case of Card and Krueger, the minimum wage increased in New Jersey to levels above that of neighboring Pennsylvania.  The result was no discernable loss in employment compared to Pennsylvania and no noticeable rise in prices in affected restaurants.

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Podcast 3/13/2016: Super-Duper Tuesday Predictions, Violence on the Trump Circuit, and Rahm Emanuel Needing the Cersei Lannister Treatment

Better late than never.

In this episode, Vinny and I make some terrible predictions regarding super-duper Tuesday, discuss the weather, Trump's white power rallies, and more.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-d4tin-5da0bd/download

Notes:

• I bring up a demographic stat at one point that I can't place a name to.  I still couldn't find it.  I'll keep looking.
• https://www.yahoo.com/politics/trump-challenged-over-ties-to-mob-linked-gambler-100050602.html Trump and the mob.
• Operation Linebacker II http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/linebacker-2.htm

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Podcast 3/6/2016: Democratic Debate Color Commentary and Tuesday Predictions

On this episode, Vinny and I give the play by play on Sunday's Democratic debate.

We apologize for the quality of the audio.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-np3pc-5d5389/download

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Podcast 3/5/2016: Super Tuesday Review, Preview of Saturday and Sunday Primaries/Caucuses

On this episode Vinny and I review our Super Tuesday predictions.  How wrong were we?

We'll also preview this weekend's primaries and caucuses.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ycchc-5d4501/download

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Podcast 2/29/2016: SC(D) Recap, Super Tuesday Preview, Drunkenness, Syria, and Gasoline Huffing

On this episode Vinny and I discuss our terrible SC predictions, our new Super Tuesday predictions, drunkenness in history, the Syrian conflict, gasoline huffing, and more.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-wkt9g-5d2484/download

Notes:

• Hillary Clinton served as a Senator from January 2001-January 2009.

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Realism for One

One of the things that irritates me the most about the upcoming election is that the media's line of questioning only seems to treat one candidate's policy proposals as though they're actually serious. Bernie Sanders is routinely questioned as though his proposals are crazy and unrealistic despite the fact that he's basically advocating for what every other western democracy already has.  I have no problem with asking Sanders tough questions like how he plans to pay for universal education or how he would get massive overhaul of the health care system through congress.  What I do have a problem with, is why other candidates are not subject to the same level of scrutiny.

Hillary Clinton has proposed a number of "reasonable" policies that under the current congress, where Obama could nominate Robert Bork and still not get him through confirmation in the Senate, would stand absolutely no chance of passing.  Clinton routinely talks about how she "would get stuff done" despite not offering any actual evidence of it.  The only things I see Clinton actually able to do given the current political climate, is work together with the Republicans to get bad free-trade deals and deeper involvement in wars we can't possibly win.

I don't hear how Clinton would pay for her policies.  Sanders at least has the decency to tell us that his "free stuff" would result in higher taxes and not just for the super-rich.  I never hear Clinton questioned on whether her "reasonable" and "technocratic" health care or education policies would create a massive amount of paperwork and bureaucracy for ordinary citizens to navigate.  I haven't heard anything about how these means-tested policies would be extraordinarily easy for congress to remove precisely because they don't apply to everyone.

Podcast 2/26/2016: Post-SC(R)/NV, Pre-SC(D)

In this episode, Vinny and I revisit our predictions of the Nevada caucuses, the Republican South Carolina primary, and make predictions for the Democratic South Carolina primary.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-hqs9h-5d07d0/download

South Carolina predictions:
AM:
Clinton 54%
Sanders 40%

VM:
Clinton 58-59%
Sanders 40%

Notes:

• I said we are more segregated then ever... This is undoubtedly false.  The real story however, is less clear.  It's likely that many of us are more segregated in schooling than in the late 1960s. Bottom line:  It's nuanced.  Check out this 2003 UCLA study. 

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Podcast 2/20/2016: Nevada and South Carolina Prediction

In this episode, Vinny and I discuss where I actually agree with Donald Trump, the possibility of a fistfight in the next Republican debate, our predictions for the Republican South Carolina debate, and predictions for the Nevada Democratic and Republican caucuses.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-hqrcw-5cd602/download

Predictions:
VM:
SC Republican:

1. Trump 35%~
2. Cruz 25%~
3. Rubio 15%~
4. Jeb 9%~
5. Kasich 8%~
6. Carson 5%~

NV Democrats:

1. Sanders by a hair
2. Clinton

NV Republicans:

1. Trump 45%
2. Ted Cruz 25%
3. Rubio 15%
4. Kasich 10%

AM:

SC Republican:

1. Trump 30-35%
2. Rubio 20%~
3. Cruz 19%~
4. Jeb Who cares?
5. Kasich Who cares?
6. Carson Who cares?

NV Democrats:

1. Sanders by a hair
2. Clinton

NV Republicans:

1. Trump 35-40%
2. Cruz 20-25%
3. Rubio 15%~
4. Jeb 10%~
5. Carson 5%~

Notes:

• Next Republican debate is 2/25/2016 on CNN

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

David Brooks' Fantasyland

David Brooks via Wikimedia Commons

New York Times columnist David Brooks lives in a fantasyland.  Brooks, like most, is a product of his environment.  He's hobnobbed with the conservative elite of New York and Washington DC like the late William F. Buckley for years.  I would suggest that the circles Mr. Brooks inhabits has perhaps left him out of touch with the day-to-day reality most people face.  This has been clear for a while and is particularly evident this Friday as he writes in puzzlement on the millennial embrace of Bernie Sanders.  From his NYT column:

...Sanders would weaken the ability of members of the middle class to make choices about their own lives. He would raise taxes on the rich, but there is only so much money you can squeeze out of such a small group of people...

I'm not sure if Brooks realizes this, but the middle class has all but vanished thanks to many of the policies embraced by Brooks and those of similar ilk.  You know what hampers choice?  Relying on your employer to provide benefits that are universally guaranteed in other developed nations.  While it is true there is only so much money to be squeezed from the wealthiest among us, they are the ones who can afford to chip in a bit more for the system that has helped them amass such a level of wealth.

Podcast 1-31-2016: Pre-Iowa

On this episode, Vinny and I ramble on about the Sanders candidacy, luke-warm progressives, Vermont gubernatorial candidate Matt Dunne, hot Supreme Court action, our Iowa predictions, and more.

Iowa Caucus predictions:

VM: 

Democratic:

1. Sanders 
2. Clinton 
3. O'Malley 

Republican:

1. Trump 
2. Rubio 
3. Cruz 

AM:
Democratic:

1. Sanders 
2. Clinton 
3. O'Malley 

Republican:

1. Cruz 
2. Trump 
3. Rubio 

Notes:
When speaking of the overthrow of Mossadegh, I misspoke and said the "Iraqi army" when I should have said "Iranian".
Allen Dulles' law firm was "Sullivan and Cromwell" not "Simon and Cromwell"
"The Devil's Chessboard" http://www.amazon.com/Devils-Chessboard-Dulles-Americas-Government/dp/0062276166/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1454520372&sr=1-1&keywords=the+devils+chessboard
"All the Shah's Men" http://www.amazon.com/All-Shahs-Men-American-Middle/dp/0471265179/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1454520442&sr=1-2&keywords=all+the+shah%27s+men
"The Siege of Mecca" http://www.amazon.com/Siege-Mecca-Uprising-Islams-Holiest/dp/0307277739/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1454520556&sr=1-1&keywords=the+siege+of+mecca
"The Seven US Ambassadors Killed in the Line of Duty"
Are agency fees for unions at public sector jobs a violation of free speech protections? http://blog.constitutioncenter.org/2016/01/supreme-court-tackles-key-public-union-case-on-monday/ Frederichs v. CTA.
History of first amendment protections for public employees: http://www.firstamendmentcenter.org/madison/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/FirstReport.PublicEmployees.pdf
Candidacy filings for president http://www.fec.gov/press/resources/2016presidential_form2pty.shtml
Debbie Wasserman Schultz's primary challenger Tim Canova https://timcanova.com/

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

That Time Jim Webb Killed a Man and Other Observations from the Democratic Debate

That was a surprisingly substance filled debate.  I say surprisingly because after CNN's intro with cheesy graphics, weird hype, and Sheryl Crow national anthem intro, I thought I had mistakenly tuned into Big Brother, the Superbowl, or some kind of professional wrestling match.  As it turns out, I had just tuned into a shitty news network.

A few thoughts on our candidates:

Hillary
 

• Best quote: "No" when asked if she wanted to respond to Lincoln Chafee's criticism of her email scandal.
• Hilary is great at seeming to give a firm position on something while not really committing to anything.  A lawyer through and through.
• Hillary is a woman and she is running for President.
• Worst moment: A tie between Snowden would have been given whistle blower protection and she still can't shake the Iraq war vote.
• Overall, I think she did pretty well at least as far as superficial debate commentary goes.  She had a confident answer for everything, even if it wasn't a good answer she sounded as though she believed it.

Bernie

• Whether you agree with the man or not, you can't deny the man is passionate and sincere.
• He's an unpolished, unapologetic, angry old progressive, which is precisely what I like about him.
• Best quote:  Well I don't have the exact quote handy, but it was pretty great when he went after the media for the obsession over Benghazi and Hillary's emails.
• Worst moment:  He stumbled a little over guns.  Also he hasn't articulated the policy differences between him and Hillary clearly enough. 
• Strong showing, but did enough people see it?

Tommy Carcetti Martin O'Malley

• O'Malley is like the little brother of Hillary and Bernie.  He doesn't really differentiate himself from the other candidates very well.
• Best quote: Can't think of one.
• Worst moment:  He endorsed Hillary.
• Boring.

Lincoln Chafee

• Poor Lincoln Chafee.  Chafee seems like a genuinely likable person, but the man is just out of his league. But hey, he's never had a scandal. 
• Best quote:  When asked about his vote to repeal Glass-Steagall: Chafee "I was appointed to office; it was my very first vote. Anderson Cooper: "Are you saying you didn't know what you were voting for?" Chafee: "I'd just arrived to Senate." Chafee you sly dog you.
• Did I mention he's never had a scandal?  I know that's not something to brag about, but the man did hold office in Rhode Island.
• Get out now Lincoln.

Jim Webb
 

• Admittedly, I had only vague knowledge of Jim Webb.  I knew he was a war hero, a somewhat conservative Democratic Senator from Virginia, and that he had written some books.  What I learned last night is that he also (and I say this with no background in mental health whatsoever), is a tad off.
• Best quote:  This is hands down the best quote of the night.  When asked about what enemies he is proud to have made, "I’d have to say the enemy soldier that threw their grenade that wounded me, but he’s not around right now to talk to."  He should have walked out right there.  Seriously, has any candidate bragged about killing a man before?  Possibly, Andrew Jackson.  In fact, there's a decent chance Andrew Jackson killed someone at a debate. 
• Jim Webb, he's killed before and dammit, he'll do it again. 

Vote in Your Primaries

 

There are choices in the next presidential election and better choices in the primaries.  There is the possibility (albeit unlikely), that radically different candidates in either party could secure the nomination for president.  This requires however, that voters actually show up for something other than the presidential election.  If you want choice, you must vote in your primary.

Beware Green Lanternism

Source: Wikimedia Commons

As the Presidential candidate carousel heats up for the 2016 election, I can't help but think about how terrible political coverage is in this country.  My specific gripe is how much importance is placed on the presidential election, while the other elections are mostly ignored. Without a doubt the President is the most important individual in our political system, however even he cannot take go to the bathroom without the consent of congress and the blessing of the judiciary.