Podcast 3/5/2016: Super Tuesday Review, Preview of Saturday and Sunday Primaries/Caucuses

On this episode Vinny and I review our Super Tuesday predictions.  How wrong were we?

We'll also preview this weekend's primaries and caucuses.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ycchc-5d4501/download

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com

Realism for One

One of the things that irritates me the most about the upcoming election is that the media's line of questioning only seems to treat one candidate's policy proposals as though they're actually serious. Bernie Sanders is routinely questioned as though his proposals are crazy and unrealistic despite the fact that he's basically advocating for what every other western democracy already has.  I have no problem with asking Sanders tough questions like how he plans to pay for universal education or how he would get massive overhaul of the health care system through congress.  What I do have a problem with, is why other candidates are not subject to the same level of scrutiny.

Hillary Clinton has proposed a number of "reasonable" policies that under the current congress, where Obama could nominate Robert Bork and still not get him through confirmation in the Senate, would stand absolutely no chance of passing.  Clinton routinely talks about how she "would get stuff done" despite not offering any actual evidence of it.  The only things I see Clinton actually able to do given the current political climate, is work together with the Republicans to get bad free-trade deals and deeper involvement in wars we can't possibly win.

I don't hear how Clinton would pay for her policies.  Sanders at least has the decency to tell us that his "free stuff" would result in higher taxes and not just for the super-rich.  I never hear Clinton questioned on whether her "reasonable" and "technocratic" health care or education policies would create a massive amount of paperwork and bureaucracy for ordinary citizens to navigate.  I haven't heard anything about how these means-tested policies would be extraordinarily easy for congress to remove precisely because they don't apply to everyone.

Podcast 2/26/2016: Post-SC(R)/NV, Pre-SC(D)

In this episode, Vinny and I revisit our predictions of the Nevada caucuses, the Republican South Carolina primary, and make predictions for the Democratic South Carolina primary.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-hqs9h-5d07d0/download

South Carolina predictions:
AM:
Clinton 54%
Sanders 40%

VM:
Clinton 58-59%
Sanders 40%

Notes:

• I said we are more segregated then ever... This is undoubtedly false.  The real story however, is less clear.  It's likely that many of us are more segregated in schooling than in the late 1960s. Bottom line:  It's nuanced.  Check out this 2003 UCLA study. 

NSFW

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Podcast 2/20/2016: Nevada and South Carolina Prediction

In this episode, Vinny and I discuss where I actually agree with Donald Trump, the possibility of a fistfight in the next Republican debate, our predictions for the Republican South Carolina debate, and predictions for the Nevada Democratic and Republican caucuses.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-hqrcw-5cd602/download

Predictions:
VM:
SC Republican:

1. Trump 35%~
2. Cruz 25%~
3. Rubio 15%~
4. Jeb 9%~
5. Kasich 8%~
6. Carson 5%~

NV Democrats:

1. Sanders by a hair
2. Clinton

NV Republicans:

1. Trump 45%
2. Ted Cruz 25%
3. Rubio 15%
4. Kasich 10%

AM:

SC Republican:

1. Trump 30-35%
2. Rubio 20%~
3. Cruz 19%~
4. Jeb Who cares?
5. Kasich Who cares?
6. Carson Who cares?

NV Democrats:

1. Sanders by a hair
2. Clinton

NV Republicans:

1. Trump 35-40%
2. Cruz 20-25%
3. Rubio 15%~
4. Jeb 10%~
5. Carson 5%~

Notes:

• Next Republican debate is 2/25/2016 on CNN

NSFW

*Music is brought to you by Bensound.com