Podcast 4/2/2016: The "Bernie or Bust" Movement and Minimum Wage

In this episode,  Vinny and I throw some cold water on the "Bernie or Bust" movement.  We then move on to discuss the political and economic justifications for a raise in the minimum wage.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-cavrx-5e1988/download

Notes:

• Zephyr Teachout is running for the House in New York's 19th Congressional district.  If you're serious about progressive policies then consider donating to her campaign or voting for her if you reside in the 19th.  She's from Vermont, for what it's worth.
• Russ Feingold is a progressive candidate for US Senate (and former US Senator) in Wisconsin. Again, the above applies.
• Tim Canova is challenging incompetent DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 23rd congressional district.
• The minimum wage went from $0.40 in 1945 to $0.75 in 1950 to $1 in 1956.  
• From 1948 to 1960 unemployment was as follows (BLS): 

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• 1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0
• 1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6
• 1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
• 1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1
• 1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7
• 1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5
• 1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0
• 1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2
• 1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2
• 1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2
• 1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2
• 1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3
• 1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6
 
• There were other things going on beside the minimum wage increase during this time like the baby-boom, soldiers returning from WWII, soldiers going to Korea, the G.I. bill, and the normal cyclical trends of the economy, but based on the above data I don't think it's necessarily reasonable to expect massive unemployment because of a minimum wage hike.
• During the same period of time as noted above inflation ranged from 10.2% in January of 1948 to -2.9% in October of 1949.  Again, there was a lot going on during this period of time. Since the 1920's the economy had been pretty volatile, so it takes a very selective reading of the data to pin it on a minimum wage increase (Inflation Calculator).  EDIT I just realized I cited the two extremes that occurred before either of the minimum wage increases.  Inflation from 1945-1960 was as follows:


• 1945 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
• 1946 2.2 1.7 2.8 3.4 3.4 3.3 9.4 11.6 12.7 14.9 17.7 18.1 8.3
• 1947 18.1 18.8 19.7 19.0 18.4 17.6 12.1 11.4 12.7 10.6 8.5 8.8 14.4
• 1948 10.2 9.3 6.8 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 8.9 6.5 6.1 4.8 3.0 8.1
• 1949 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -2.9 -2.9 -2.4 -2.9 -1.7 -2.1 -1.2
• 1950 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 3.8 3.8 5.9 1.3
• 1951 8.1 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.8 7.5 6.6 7.0 6.5 6.9 6.0 7.9
• 1952 4.3 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 1.9
• 1953 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8
• 1954 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.7
• 1955 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4
• 1956 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 3.0 1.5
• 1957 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.3
• 1958 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.8
• 1959 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 0.7
• 1960 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7


• Other empirical studies (namely Card and Krueger), have shown little to no increase in unemployment even when wage levels differ in neighboring states.  In the case of Card and Krueger, the minimum wage increased in New Jersey to levels above that of neighboring Pennsylvania.  The result was no discernable loss in employment compared to Pennsylvania and no noticeable rise in prices in affected restaurants.

NSFW

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