It's Tax Time! (FY15 Re-Release with More Forms)

 

It's time to do your civic duty and pay your taxes or rather for most of us, fill out a form to verify what the government already knows. It really is silly when you think about it, the IRS actually does your taxes exactly like you and if you make a mistake, they will correct it.  Hell, they'll even correct it if you made a mistake in their favor and then refund you for the correct amount.  So this begs the question, why do we need to file a return at all?  Can't they just send us what they think our income was and ask us to either verify it or dispute the amount?  Why all the extra confusing paperwork?  I don't know with certainty, but I would venture to guess that it has a lot to do with why our government often does silly nonsensical things: lobbyists.  Intuit Inc., the company that brings us TurboTax, ranks 702 of 16,793 in terms of campaign contributions according to Opensecrets.org.  Tax preparers like H&R Block also contribute substantial donations.

Republican Presidential Candidates Should Put Their Barrels Where Their Mouth is

Ted Cruz via abcnews.go.com

As some of you may have heard, there is a petition circulating to allow open carry of firearms at the Republican Convention.  With an expected crowd of 50,000 in what is looking like a contested convention; with white supremacists, religious zealots, Ted Cruz, and the rest of the freedom-loving critters that form the base of the Republican Party in attendance, the need to pack heat has never been greater.  I for one cannot think of a better place to allow the full exercise of the Second Amendment.

This is how we determine which candidates are true patriots.  The buzzkill brigade otherwise known as the Secret Service is just big government getting in the way of the aspirations of our citizenry, undermining their Second Amendment rights, and jeopardizing their safety.  The candidates must demonstrate both their faith in the Second Amendment and free market principles by refusing Secret Service protection.  With the remaining candidates' net worth ranging from $3.5 million to $4-8 billion, they should have no trouble hiring security and I'm sure there are a number of members of the Aryan Brotherhood that would gladly offer protection to Donald Trump.

Naysayers will contend that arming attendees fueled with drugs, alcohol, and a strong sense of victimhood; in the great American shithole known as Cleveland, with protestors sure to be in the streets, the National Guard and Ohio State Police under the command of John Kasich, the convention could end in a bloodbath.  That is a small price to pay for freedom.

Merica!

Podcast 4/2/2016: The "Bernie or Bust" Movement and Minimum Wage

In this episode,  Vinny and I throw some cold water on the "Bernie or Bust" movement.  We then move on to discuss the political and economic justifications for a raise in the minimum wage.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-cavrx-5e1988/download

Notes:

• Zephyr Teachout is running for the House in New York's 19th Congressional district.  If you're serious about progressive policies then consider donating to her campaign or voting for her if you reside in the 19th.  She's from Vermont, for what it's worth.
• Russ Feingold is a progressive candidate for US Senate (and former US Senator) in Wisconsin. Again, the above applies.
• Tim Canova is challenging incompetent DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 23rd congressional district.
• The minimum wage went from $0.40 in 1945 to $0.75 in 1950 to $1 in 1956.  
• From 1948 to 1960 unemployment was as follows (BLS): 

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• 1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0
• 1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6
• 1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
• 1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1
• 1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7
• 1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5
• 1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0
• 1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2
• 1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2
• 1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2
• 1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2
• 1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3
• 1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6
 
• There were other things going on beside the minimum wage increase during this time like the baby-boom, soldiers returning from WWII, soldiers going to Korea, the G.I. bill, and the normal cyclical trends of the economy, but based on the above data I don't think it's necessarily reasonable to expect massive unemployment because of a minimum wage hike.
• During the same period of time as noted above inflation ranged from 10.2% in January of 1948 to -2.9% in October of 1949.  Again, there was a lot going on during this period of time. Since the 1920's the economy had been pretty volatile, so it takes a very selective reading of the data to pin it on a minimum wage increase (Inflation Calculator).  EDIT I just realized I cited the two extremes that occurred before either of the minimum wage increases.  Inflation from 1945-1960 was as follows:


• 1945 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.8 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3
• 1946 2.2 1.7 2.8 3.4 3.4 3.3 9.4 11.6 12.7 14.9 17.7 18.1 8.3
• 1947 18.1 18.8 19.7 19.0 18.4 17.6 12.1 11.4 12.7 10.6 8.5 8.8 14.4
• 1948 10.2 9.3 6.8 8.7 9.1 9.5 9.9 8.9 6.5 6.1 4.8 3.0 8.1
• 1949 1.3 1.3 1.7 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -2.9 -2.9 -2.4 -2.9 -1.7 -2.1 -1.2
• 1950 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 3.8 3.8 5.9 1.3
• 1951 8.1 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.3 8.8 7.5 6.6 7.0 6.5 6.9 6.0 7.9
• 1952 4.3 2.3 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.3 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.8 1.9
• 1953 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.8
• 1954 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 0.7
• 1955 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.4
• 1956 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.2 3.0 1.5
• 1957 3.0 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.3 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.3
• 1958 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.8 2.8
• 1959 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.7 0.7
• 1960 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7


• Other empirical studies (namely Card and Krueger), have shown little to no increase in unemployment even when wage levels differ in neighboring states.  In the case of Card and Krueger, the minimum wage increased in New Jersey to levels above that of neighboring Pennsylvania.  The result was no discernable loss in employment compared to Pennsylvania and no noticeable rise in prices in affected restaurants.

NSFW

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Podcast 3/26/2016: News Rundown and College Tuition

In this episode, we run through a news-packed week including Brussels, Obama in Cuba and Argentina, the real reason behind the "War on Drugs", North Carolina striving to be a shittier state, racist twitter bots, voter suppression in Arizona and more.  We then dive deep into the practical and philosophical reasons for cheap college.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-rgth8-5df71e/download

Notes:

• Timeline of the riots in Gujarat http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/06/world/asia/modi-gujarat-riots-timeline.html?_r=0#/#time287_8514
• A history of the Tamil Tigers:  http://www.aljazeera.com/focus/2008/11/2008112019115851343.html
• North Carolina did ban using climate change data.  More evidence that we should put birth control in their water. http://abcnews.go.com/US/north-carolina-bans-latest-science-rising-sea-level/story?id=16913782
• The Maricopa County Recorder Helen Purcell (Republican) was in charge of the polling places in by far the most ethnically diverse and most populous part of Arizona.  I implore my fellow Bernie supporters not to engage in ridiculous conspiracy theories about how this was Hillary Clinton's evil plan.  Clinton conspiring with Arizona Republicans is pretty far fetched for me.  Also, you can place  a lot of blame on the Supreme Court overturning parts of the Voting Rights Act, more reason why the "Bernie or Bust" movement is idiotic and counter-productive. http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/arizona-hearing-latinos-demand-answers-primary-voting-problems-n547131
• Steve Jobs was a terrible person.  Apart from the deplorable near slave labor conditions overseas in Apple's contractors, he engaged in collusion to keep the wages of software engineers down.  http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/01/technology/engineers-allege-hiring-collusion-in-silicon-valley.html?_r=0
• Cost of the University of Vermont's proposed new hockey arena:  $65 million  http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/sports/college/2014/11/14/uvm-gaining-ground-new-arena/19053135/ 
• Estimated in-state cost of attending University of Vermont for 2016-2017:  $31,960 ($15,096 in tuition alone) http://www.uvm.edu/~stdfinsv/?Page=tuition-fees.html&SM=tuitionsubmenu.html
• Ben Bernanke's surprisingly good and surprisingly subversive Baccalaureate speech to Princeton http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130602a.htm#f1

NSFW

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Podcast 3/20/2016: Syria and Brazil

On this episode, Vinny and I discuss American foreign policy as it relates to the Syrian civil war, the crisis stemming from the Petrobras scandal in Brazil, and of course, some tangents.

http://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-nzp8s-5dd1fe/download

Notes:

• Cities and towns of the Syrian Civil War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_and_towns_during_the_Syrian_Civil_War
• Global arms trade http://www.globalissues.org/article/74/the-arms-trade-is-big-business
• I mentioned being John McCain being photographed with members of al-Qaeda on a visit to Syria.  I fact-checked myself and the details were sketchy.  McCain was ostensibly meeting with members of the Free Syrian Army, but that has been disputed.  What's clear to me is I can't make that claim as if it is fact.  You win this round, McCain.
• On the drugging of a Kursk relative http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/894597.stm.
• A Vox article on Brazil and the Petrobras scandal http://www.vox.com/2016/3/18/11260924/petrobras-brazil
• 
• A little on the admission of California to the Union http://www.historytoday.com/richard-cavendish/california-becomes-state-union
• Shrinking cities in the United States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrinking_cities_in_the_United_States

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Dorf! Lessons in Self-Awareness

Jeffery Dorfman-Via Forbes

From time to time, a publication founded by a funny-faced multi-millionaire publishes something so tone-deaf and utterly detached from reality, that I feel a visceral need to subject the author to champagne-boarding until they admit supply-side economics is bunk.  The publication I speak of is none other than Forbes.  Today’s author is Jeffrey Dorfman P.H.D. and he explains to us why the student debt crisis is no biggie because people also owe auto loans.

The purported crisis of mounting student loan debt is one of the most overhyped problems of this young century. We were treated to thousands of news stories when student loan debt went above $1 trillion in total, more as it continued to rise, and a growing avalanche of stories designed to create sympathy for these poor indebted college graduates (and drop-outs). Yet, auto loan debt in the U.S. has now reached $1.1 trillion, up 30 percent from its pre-recession peak, without a similar mountain of press warning of the imminent catastrophe. This divergence in media coverage and analysis tells us much about how the student debt crisis is more manufactured than real.

Don’t worry everybody, even though these are two separate loans, for two separate purposes, with limited overlap, the comparison is still great.

The average college graduate who has any student loan debt graduates with between $25,000 and $30,000 in student loan debt. On a standard ten year repayment schedule, this means a monthly payment in the range of $280 to $330 per month. The average new car loan in the second quarter of 2015 averaged $28,500, was for five years, and carried a monthly payment of $483 month. Payments on student loans and auto loans both take up almost exactly the same percentage of income.

This argument is on shaky ground.  First, Dorfman is talking mean not median.  In both cases, the mean is likely driven higher by expensive outliers.  Second, I don’t think I know a recent college graduate, who can pay $483 a month for a car payment without major assistance from family.  Most recent college graduates that I’ve met are lucky if they can afford a 10-year-old Civic.  Third, there is not 100% overlap here.  I would speculate that someone buying a $20,000-30,000 car probably is, at least, employed full-time. Auto loans and student loans are also inherently different.  Auto loans can be forgiven in bankruptcy, cars can be repossessed, and the debt can be settled.  Student loans are not usually forgiven until full payment or death.  Furthermore, if they are also carrying $30,000 in student loans in a job that doesn’t even pay $12 an hour, they aren’t getting any new loan for much at all.

Richard Sherman's right to be an asshole

So did you know that you're not allowed to tell a millionaire professional Guy Who Plays With Rubber Filled With Air unless you too are a current or former Guy Who Plays With Rubber Filled With Air?  Neither did I.  Try telling that to Richard Sherman though (or, don't, because who the fuck are you to tell him anything?).

The owners of all 32 NFL teams met in Boca Raton and discussed 19 rule changes, the one causing so much heartache with Sherman being this: a player flagged with two personal fouls in the same game should be ejected from that game. According to sportingcharts.com:

"The personal foul is considered the most reviled of penalties, and the most avoidable. The two main kinds of personal foul are unnecessary roughness and unsportsmanlike conduct. Examples of unnecessary roughness include a late hit after the conclusion of the play, a  grasp of the facemask that turns the head of an opposing player, an illegal block on the knees of an vulnerable player, or a blow to the head of the quarterback. Examples of unsportsmanlike conduct include taunting, excessive celebration after a touchdown, contact with an official, or fighting with an opposing player. In the event that two players from opposing teams receive personal fouls on the same play, the penalties are considered to be "offsetting" and the down is replayed."

Richard Sherman does NOT like this.  Let USA Today take it from here:

"I think it's foolish," Sherman said in an interview on SportsCenter. "But it sounds like something somebody who's never played the game would say, something that they would suggest, because he doesn't understand. He's just a face. He's just a suit. He's never stepped foot on the field and understood how you can get a personal foul."

What the fuck does that even mean?  So I need to have been a professional football player in order to insist you don't punch another player in the face?  Only if I have taken snaps would I know how hard it is to avoid roughing up an official because I didn't like what he said?  This doesn't make any sense to me, but I'm just a non-football playing face, so what do I know?

 http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/seahawks/2016/03/20/richard-sherman-roger-goodell-foolish-ejection-proposal/82050612/

http://www.sportingcharts.com/dictionary/nfl/personal-foul.aspx